Kolkata Election 2021 - Dangal for BJP And TMC This Time

Last year's Kolkata municipal election turnout was the lowest in more than half a century. Many people blame this on incomplete information provided by the election commission. Some say that the turnout would have been higher if there was an electronic scanning of every voter's card. The lack of proper information and hacking to remove voters from the voting list led to widespread voter dissatisfaction.

Winning Point
The next municipal elections are due in late November. Will voters go back again to vote for the ruling party? Given the NDA government's poor performance in the last two years, it is not surprising that a significant section of the population is contemplating another change of government. Will the present government go, or can it win the next election by retaining its existing form? The current government has already indicated that it will not hold another election before the next general election. So will this mean a win for the TMC or BJP?

Recent by-elections in Bhatye Beach and South 24 Para indicate that people are fed up with TMC and BJP. Both these parties represent the interests of the small rural and semi-urban localities. Although they have different roots, the party brands itself as a "workers' party." The TMC has promised steady growth in the next few years and that it would bring jobs to the people of Kolkata; however, all this talk has done nothing to calm the minds of many who do not trust the government's promise.

The present government has adopted a completely different approach to winning the next election. It is now trying to project itself as the people's party, thereby appealing to the middle and other society sections. If the present government can do so, the TMC will likely come out of the next elections with a handsome lead. According to one analyst, the TMC may end up winning more than the share of the votes it has garnered during the last five general elections.

TMC Votes
It might sound unbelievable to many, but according to an estimate by a well-known political analyst, the share of the vote the TMC is likely to win in the next polls will double the current numbers. The government is trying to shore up its support base among the lower castes. The chief minister is concentrating his efforts on ensuring that the government gets a healthy number of seats in the legislature. The backward classes vote for the TMC. According to this analysis, it is believed that the chief minister will be able to retain the seat of West Bengal in the next elections. However, the results might vary between six to eight seats if the analysts believe. The state had witnessed a significant reversal in the previous vote counting results.

With a lead of 14 percentage points, the TMC has enough support to win the state's first election after seven years in power. However, if the forecast is right and the vote count is predicted to fall apart, the party might lose its precious seat in the legislature. It is believed that the vote might fall apart owing to the absence of a robust central party to support it.

The outgoing CM's decision to form a new party was viewed with suspicion by the opposition, accusing it of nepotism. This allegation was based on the fact that no other government has ever formed a party without seeking the state assembly's consent. With a lead of eight percentage points, the TMC might end up winning the largest vote and the first mandate. However, it isn't easy to project the exact turnout when the counting will continue till the end of the counting day. It is estimated that around 75% of the voters have turned up to cast their vote.

If the projected turnout is not anywhere close to the winning percentage, the TMC might not form the government. It is not the end of the road for the party. Its future is not decided yet. The next elections are scheduled to be held in the following phases. Will the TMC continues to have power, or the party looking forward to being a national leader in South India to be reduced to regional power broker status?

Votes Count
The counting of votes is going to be done manually. Only nine out of the fifty-two representatives will be elected. If the count is two or three hundred fifty, an electronic voting system will be used. It is expected that this system will reduce the margin of defeat significantly and will make the entire process transparent. Since the counting of votes will be done manually, only those who gained a majority by a significant margin can assure themselves that they will be included in the next Kolkata election.

This year, it is being predicted that the ruling party will win with a considerable margin. This may end the long years of monopoly of the ruling party. But it is still early to call. Many things could happen between now and the next elections. It would be difficult to say if the government will remain in power, given that the percentage of the vote which the ruling party is expected to get his way below the required rate. Therefore, it is up to the people of Kolkata to vote but not to go for any compromise.

It is a fact that many people have been campaigning for a change in the government. They have also been demanding that the polls' integrity be respected because the Kolkata election results are being announced after counting the votes. Thus, the results' integrity is threatened if some people do not follow the necessary procedures. A lot has been happening since last year's polls. People have complained about rigging and malpractices, but nothing has been done to curb such practices. If there has been voting fraud, then the guilty parties should be punished, but right now, the police authorities cannot trace them as these culprits are very well known.